Dallas, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

581
FXUS64 KFWD 282350
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
650 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe thunderstorms across parts of Central Texas
  will continue to diminish in intensity and coverage later this
  evening.

- A weak cold front will bring increased chances for showers and
  storms back to North Texas late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow
  evening. A few storms may contain marginally severe hail and
  gusty downburst winds.

- There will be daily chances for isolated thunderstorms (30%)
  each evening next week beginning Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday Evening/

A handful of right-moving supercells have developed this evening
on the nose of a theta-E ridge and generally tracked toward the
Killeen-Temple and Austin-Round Rock MSAs over the past few hours.
We currently have no storms in our forecast area and overall
storm intensity and coverage has come down in the last hour or so.
Expect that trend to continue as we lose diurnal heating. Once
the ongoing activity near our CWA border dissipates in the ~8PM
timeframe, the rest of the overnight should remain storm free.
Widespread low stratus will develop over much of North and Central
Texas late tonight into tomorrow morning. Areas of fog and/or
mist and brief reductions in visibility will also be possible for
a few hours around sunrise tomorrow morning, so be cautious on the
roadways.

Any low clouds and fog will lift and clear by late Thursday
morning leaving partly sunny skies overhead through the remainder
of tomorrow afternoon. Expect afternoon highs in the low to mid
80s across the region Thursday. A shortwave digging south across
the Upper Missouri River Valley will help push a weak cold front
into North Texas during the latter half of Thursday. There is
still a bit of discrepancy amongst the latest suite of guidance on
FROPA timing, but we are inclined to believe that a later FROPA is
a more plausible solution with the trough remaining well displaced
to the north. This would put the front near the Red River around
3-5PM tomorrow afternoon, the I-20 corridor around 6-8PM, and then
entering Central Texas after midnight tomorrow night. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development is likely along the length of
this southward-progressing boundary as it interacts with 2500-3500
J/kg MLCAPE and upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints across North
Texas. As mentioned before, the greater synoptic-scale lift
remaining well north of our forecast area will keep the storm
coverage from being more widespread. Deep-layer shear on the order
of 25-35 kts will keep the threat for significant severe weather
on the lower end, but we cannot rule out a few stronger cores
capable of producing marginally severe hail and gusty downburst
winds tomorrow evening along and north of I-20.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 106 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025/
/Friday through Tuesday/

...Friday through Sunday...

Surface high pressure is expected to build into the region this
weekend behind the cold front Thursday night. This will bring
pleasant weather, with mostly clear skies, dew points in the 50s
and low 60s, and afternoon highs ranging from the upper 70s into
the mid 80s Friday and Saturday. Sunday, temperatures will warm
into the upper 80s and low 90s with the return of southerly flow
as the upper-level ridge axis and surface high pressure shift to
the east. Weak perturbations in upper-level flow will result in a
very low chance (10%) for a stray shower of thunderstorms during
the afternoon/evening hours. However, this appears unlikely given
large-scale subsidence that will dominate the upper-levels, and
lack of any defined surface boundaries this weekend to provide
focused areas of low-level convergence.

...Monday and Tuesday...

By the beginning of next work week, upper-level troughing will
likely build into the western CONUS. This will bring strong
southwesterly flow aloft, a synoptic regime that generally favors
diurnally driven dryline convection. The dryline will be in West
Texas, and as such, so will the greatest chances for storms and
severe weather. However, during the late evening/overnight hours,
there is a signal for one or more clusters of storms to move off
the dryline and make a run at our western counties. As such, there
will be a 20-30% chance for storms west of the I-35/35W corridor
Monday and Tuesday evenings. This will likely change depending on
the presence/timing of any embedded shortwaves that might traverse
the southern plains. Given the low predictability of these smaller
scale features, will refrain from any further discussion of storm
potential for next week.

Darrah

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

With storms pushing well south of our North and Central Texas TAF
sites this evening, expect storm-free conditions through the
remainder of the 00Z TAF period at KACT and the D10 sites. VFR
will prevail through this evening with widespread MVFR and IFR
stratus expected after ~09Z-10Z Thursday morning. Patchy fog/mist
and reduced visibilities will also be possible for a few hours
tomorrow morning. Any lingering low cigs and fog will lift and
clear by ~16Z Thursday with VFR and light southeast winds
prevailing through the rest of the regular TAF period.

Looking ahead toward the end of the DFW extended TAF, a weak cold
front will push toward the Metroplex in the 01Z-03Z Friday
timeframe with associated shower and thunderstorm chances. Expect
adjustments to this FROPA timing with future TAF updates.

Langfeld

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested this evening west of
Interstate 35 and south of Interstate 20. Even if activation is
not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the
National Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  85  65  81  64 /  20  10  40   5   5
Waco                65  85  66  78  63 /  30  10  40  10   5
Paris               64  82  61  79  58 /   5  20  20   5   0
Denton              63  83  61  80  59 /  10  20  30   5   5
McKinney            65  83  62  80  60 /  10  10  30   5   0
Dallas              67  86  65  81  64 /  20  10  30   5   5
Terrell             65  85  64  81  60 /  20  10  30   5   0
Corsicana           67  86  68  82  63 /  30  10  30  10   0
Temple              66  87  67  81  63 /  30  10  40  20   5
Mineral Wells       63  85  62  81  60 /  10  10  40  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ141>143-156>158-160-174.

&&

$$